The 2023 WTCS looks as is it will boil down to a shoot-out between Alex Yee and Hayden Wilde. It was a similar story in 2022 and neither ended up taking the world title. Nevertheless, the pair have looked a cut above the rest of the field this season.
In this article, we break down their seasons and show how they have stacked up against one another.
Yee enters the WTCS Final in Pontevedra with the upper hand in the standings. On their day, though, both have shown the ability to beat one another.
Although the 2022 WTCS Final did not go to plan for either Yee or Wilde, they nonetheless came away with their best ever Final finishes. Indeed, a year prior in Edmonton in 2021, both men had ended up outside the top-10 having won Olympic medals earlier that summer.
In Pontevedra, then, they will have to do something that they have not yet done in their careers: win a WTCS Final medal.
Given their form this year, a medal seems a likely outcome. That being said, Wilde has been plagued by misfortune at times. A pre-race bike crash thwarted him at the Paris Test Event while a mechanical ruined his day at WTCS Abu Dhabi. Should that run of bad luck continue, his title hopes could be over before he knows it.
When looking at the two men’s average positions in the WTCS in 2023, it is no surprise to see that they have been the fastest runners. Yee has been, on average, the quickest runner. Meanwhile, Wilde has averaged the third fastest split. Note, the average position has been rounded to the nearest integer.
Yee also has enjoyed the advantage in the water. On average he has emerged over 10 places ahead of Wilde. The New Zealand athlete, though, has the better average bike position of the two.
It is here that the results of WTCS Cagliari might be instructive.
In the only Olympic distance match-up of the year (Paris does not count as Wilde did not race on the run), the two men were inseparable. They shared an identical swim time of 17:22. Wilde was then 2 seconds faster on the bike (49:36 to 49:38), although Yee had already been 2 seconds quicker in T1. They then had identical T2 times of 23 seconds.
When they started the run, then, they had been perfectly matched all day. Yee ultimately out-sprinted Wilde to win by 5 seconds but it was a true battle.
Assuming neither athlete faces any problems, a similarly close fight could be on the cards in Pontevedra.
Plenty has been made of Yee’s record over Wilde. Until WTCS Hamburg, Wilde had not actually beaten Yee in the Series. The Hamburg result, though, means that the last five races gave Wilde the upper hand at least once.
When it comes to the last five match-ups, the first thing to note is that DNFs are not included. A DNF literally means that the athlete did not finish and, by not crossing the line, they were not actually beaten. For this reason, we did not regard Hayden Wilde’s win at WTCS Leeds in 2022 as a victory over Yee as the Brit crashed out.
This immediately comes up with the Paris Olympic Test Event. Yee won but as Wilde did not finish we did not officially consider it a loss.
Prior that that, Wilde won Hamburg while Yee finished 3rd. A repeat of that result in Pontevedra will hand Wilde the world title.
Before that, though, Yee won every head-to-head. Included in that run are WTCS Cagliari and WTCS Abu Dhabi this year, both of which Yee won. A case to be made that had Wilde not finished in Abu Dhabi after his mechanical it would not have counted as a loss. Still, he finished so the record shows that he was beaten.
Ultimately, the question of the Abu Dhabi mechanical and its inclusion is a question of degrees. It is a little harsh to count it against Wilde, although, it ultimately does not affect the final head-to-head score.
At WTCS Abu Dhabi in 2022, Yee finished 4th and Wilde finished 6th, as mentioned above.
if Paris 2023 and Leeds 2022 do not count as official wins due to DNFs, you actually have to go back to Yokohama in May 2022 for the fifth full head-to-head of Yee and Wilde. Over the last two seasons, they really have not raced each other that much.
The scoreboard, then, says 4-1 to Yee. Even if Abu Dhabi 2023 was removed, the scoreboard would remain unchanged as Wilde only logged his first victory over Yee in Hamburg.
There are all sorts of intangibles to then consider. Who has the better sprint finish? Who has more reliable teammates able to assist on the bike? Who is likelier to take a risk and break away? All of these elements could come into play.
With more wins, the faster run splits this season and the better history at WTCS Finals, Yee will be the favourite. Moreover, he will arrive in Pontevedra as the Series leader, although the lack of any real cushion to Wilde makes that a little meaningless.
Wilde, though, cannot be ruled out. He beat Yee in Hamburg and pushed him all the way in Cagliari. Take out his mechanical in Abu Dhabi and the 2023 season could look different.
Yee might retain the upper hand, but it will be incredibly tight.
